May 272011

RICO the bot has now successfully logged 250 hands of blackjack with no errors. I’m still running the bot on my laptop so have disabled tweeting the output for the time being.

I’ve had an initial look at the figures and there are some strategies starting to form. One thing i have found interesting is the bet ‘One or more has 5 cards’, which has only won 9% of the time.

one or more players have 5 cards

starting a new game in betfair exchange turbo blackjackWhen a new game starts none of the cards are known so the prices always seem to be the same. To lay the bet ‘One or more has 5 cards’ you are always given a price of 7.4. Minimum bet with betfair on each selection is £2 so to lay this bet your liability is £12.80.

liability of laying on betfair

When you win, no one has 5 cards, you win £2, when you lose you pay out £14.80.

Running through the numbers on the basis that you place £2 on this bet every game during round 1 you get the following…

24 times the bet won costing you £14.80 a time = you pay out £355.20

252 total games – 24 where you lose = 228 games where you win, each game you win is £2.

228 * £2 = Total of £456.

£456 winnings – £355.20 losses = £100.80 total profit. Not bad for two days work.

It’s certainly not a perfect strategy and the dataset is not large enough yet for me to be happy with the percentages, but it is a start. I’ve started to look at other ways to improve it, if you bet on the same square in round 2, when the cards are known, the price fluctuates between 1.68 and 525. Place the bet when the price is lower than 7.4 equals less liability which in turn equals more profit but also means more risk of the bet winning.

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